Best Practicing Approaching for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making - Softcover

Program, U.S. Climate Change Science

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1500479160 ISBN 13: 9781500479169

Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2014

Synopsis

The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.

Edition details

• Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform
• Publication date: 2014
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1500479160
• ISBN 13: 9781500479169
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 92