A Statistical Viewpoint on the Theory of Evidence (Classic Reprint) - Softcover

Hummel, Robert A.

 
9781333644703: A Statistical Viewpoint on the Theory of Evidence (Classic Reprint)

Synopsis

This book offers a novel viewpoint on the Dempster/Shafer Theory of Evidence, a notable framework for reasoning with uncertainty. The author argues that the theory can be understood as a form of statistical analysis of expert opinions. This perspective simplifies the interpretation of the theory's core combination formulas, revealing that they represent Bayesian updating applied to boolean assertions. The book also proposes an alternative formulation that employs probabilistic opinions of experts, leading to simpler formulas and fewer variables while maintaining the essential idea of tracking expert opinion statistics. The combination formula, rather than extending Bayes' theorem for combining probabilities, contains nothing more than Bayes' formula applied to boolean assertions. By treating the formulation as algebraic structures, and by treating opinions as the Statistics on a collection of opinions, the book provides canonical examples with which to construct states of belief to analogous real situations. This approach provides a deeper theoretical basis for the application of canonical examples to probabilistic situations with uncertainties.

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