Items related to Radical Uncertainty – Decision–Making...
Synopsis
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Authors
John Kay is an economist and Fellow of St. John's College, University of Oxford.
Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, teaches at New York University and the London School of Economics.
"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
Search results for Radical Uncertainty – Decision–Making...
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: New Legacy Books, Annandale, NJ, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Acceptable. The dust jacket shows normal wear. There is a signature or handwriting on the inside front cover. Fast shipping and order satisfaction guaranteed. A portion of your purchase benefits Non-Profit Organizations, First Aid and Fire Stations! Seller Inventory # mon0000133937
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardcover. Condition: Fair. No Jacket. Readable copy. Pages may have considerable notes/highlighting. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G1324004770I5N00
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: HPB-Red, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_472069477
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Bellwetherbooks, McKeesport, PA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Good. Crease/tear to cover. Seller Inventory # mon0000059764
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Published by
Norton & Company, Incorporated, W. W., 2020
ISBN 10: 1324004770
ISBN 13: 9781324004776
Used
Hardcover
Seller: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Very Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Seller Inventory # 40561264-6
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Published by
Norton & Company, Incorporated, W. W., 2020
ISBN 10: 1324004770
ISBN 13: 9781324004776
Used
Hardcover
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Seller Inventory # 40641739-6
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: HPB-Movies, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_459709704
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: HPB Inc., Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_475515023
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Half Price Books Inc., Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority! Seller Inventory # S_446641058
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Bellwetherbooks, McKeesport, PA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
hardcover. Condition: Very Good. Very Good Condition - May show some limited signs of wear and may have a remainder mark. Pages and dust cover are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. Seller Inventory # mon0000059765