Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning: Predicting Changing Demand Patterns in the New Digital Economy (Wiley and SAS Business Series) - Hardcover

Chase, Charles W.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 111980986X ISBN 13: 9781119809869

Publisher: Wiley, 2021

Synopsis

Discover a new, demand-centric framework for forecasting and demand planning

In Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning, thought leader and forecasting expert  Charles W. Chase delivers a practical and novel approach to retail and consumer goods companies demand planning process. The author demonstrates why a demand-centric approach relying on point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data is necessary for success in the new digital economy.

The book showcases short- and mid-term demand sensing and focuses on disruptions to the marketplace caused by the digital economy and COVID-19. You’ll also learn:

• How to improve demand forecasting and planning accuracy, reduce inventory costs, and minimize waste and stock-outs
• What is driving shifting consumer demand patterns, including factors like price, promotions, in-store merchandising, and unplanned and unexpected events
• How to apply analytics and machine learning to your forecasting challenges using proven approaches and tactics described throughout the book via several case studies.   

Perfect for executives, directors, and managers at retailers, consumer products companies, and other manufacturers, Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning will also earn a place in the libraries of sales, marketing, supply chain, and finance professionals seeking to sharpen their understanding of how to predict future consumer demand.

About this title

About the Author

CHARLES W. CHASE is an Executive Industry Consultant at SAS. He is responsible for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve supply chain efficiencies for SAS customers. He is the former president of the International Association of Business Forecasting and currently writes a quarterly column in the Journal of Business Forecasting.

From the Back Cover

Praise for Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning

“This book is thought evoking and germane to topics facing today’s forecasting professionals. Charlie advances demand forecasting thought leadership through supplementing traditional statistical forecasting with machine learning. Moreover, he makes the concepts relevant to a large audience of practitioners through examples of practical application. This is a must-read for those looking to effectively augment and improve demand forecasts.”
―BENJAMIN MARTIN, PhD, Chief Analytics Officer, Hanesbrands Inc.

“In Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning, Charlie draws on his extensive experience in forecasting and technology to emphasize why pivoting from a supply-centric to a true consumer demand method is necessary for success in today’s digital economy. A must-read for forecasting practitioners and decision-makers, this book stresses the impact of digital disruption on consumer behavior and provides a framework to apply advanced analytics and machine learning to improve forecast responsiveness. Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning will compel you to envision the future of demand forecasting with a renewed focus on the consumer.”
―GLENN KELTNER, PhD, Manager, Demand Planning Development, Nestlé Purina PetCare

“Charlie Chase provides an extremely relevant guide for companies trying to navigate uncertainty and disruption. As a CPG and analytics industry thought leader, Charlie makes clear where planning departments and IT organizations need to focus to give them a competitive advantage in managing increasing complexities in the digital era. This book will help planning leaders who feel their traditional forecasting methods are no longer adequate to keep pace with shifting consumer demand but may be overwhelmed by how to pivot.”
―MEREDITH CANNON, Director, Integrated Business Planning, Campbell Soup Company

“In this unusual time of disruption, ‘Anticipating’ what consumers want in what quantity and at what price point is the corner stone of success. Since the reaction time is not in days but in mere hours, ‘Decisioning’ needs to be based on intelligent automation. This book, full of real-life data, anecdotes, and personal experience of the author, unravels the secret sauce for digital supply chain decision making.”
―NILMADHAB MANDAL, Global Data Science Lead II, Analytics Delivery and Advisory II, Mondelēz International

“Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning by Charlie Chase arrived just in time. Covid-19 has dramatically exposed us to sudden shifts in consumer behavior and unexpected consumption patterns and preferences. Whether you are in retail or running a consumer goods business, you have certainly been confronted with the challenge of how to identify future needs in these unpredictable times. The book brings forward the concept and importance of anticipatory forecasting, based on real-time data signals such as point-of-sale (POS) and other syndicated data, price, sales promotions, economic and other data sources. I commend the author for writing a business book on statistical approaches in a simple and highly readable manner.”
―ANDREA TAKACS, VP of Integrated Supply Chain Processes, Carlsberg Group

From the Inside Flap

In Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning: Predicting Changing Demand Patterns in the New Digital Economy, expert Charles W. Chase delivers an incisive and novel approach to forecasting demand for retailers and manufacturers. Crafting a compelling case for switching from supply-centric approaches to true demand-centric approaches, the book showcases exactly what businesses need to be successful in the new digital economy.

You’ll discover how to implement both short- and medium-term demand sensing so that your organization can significantly improve its ability to accurately predict demand and reduce the cost of finished goods inventories, stock-outs, waste, and working capital. You’ll also learn how to understand short-term changes in consumer demand patterns and what drives them, from unexpected epidemiological factors to demographics.

The book addresses the changes in people, processes, analytics, and technology that have gripped the supply chain industry over the last two decades and provides case examples based on real-world data collected by the author on how to apply advanced analytics and machine learning to solve current business problems.

Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning provides a framework for changing the way that demand forecasting and planning are done. It also offers guidance on the change management necessary to implement and sustain the new techniques. The book also discusses disruptions to the supply chain caused by COVID-19 and other unstable phenomena and how to handle and predict them.

Perfect for executives, including CEOs, CFOs, and CMOs, as well as other business leaders in sales, marketing, operations, and finance, Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning: Predicting Changing Demand Patterns in the New Digital Economy is also a must-read for any professional responsible for predicting or responding to consumer demand.

Edition details

• Publisher: Wiley
• Publication date: 2021
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 111980986X
• ISBN 13: 9781119809869
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 272