Items related to Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration: 2.1 Edition
Synopsis
Superseded by the 3.0 edition, April 2014.
This is another update of Paul Newendorp's 1975 best-seller, which became the standard reference in the field. This book introduces the reader to ways of applying risk and decision analysis to petroleum exploration investment decisions under uncertainty. Topics covered in the book represent a composite of evaluation practices and problem-solving approaches now commonly-used in the industry. Several important and practical concepts were first published in the first edition. Decision analysis methods apply to any type of business investment decision. The emphasis here is on quantitative methods useful in petroleum exploration decisions. This will be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of property acquisitions, geophysical surveys, prospect drilling, and field development decisions. Ths books is for petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists, evaluation and planning analysts, and managers. A mathematics or statistics background is not required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions. First is a review of the advantages and disadvantages of various profitability criteria used for selecting and comparing drilling prospects. The important expected value (EV) concept is next introduced. Expected monetary value (EMV = EV net present value) is the principal decision criterion used in most examples. The EV calculation incorporates judgments about risks and uncertainties expressed as probabilities and probability distributions. EV is the cornerstone of formal, quantitative analysis for decisions under uncertainty. The key calculation methods are decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. Small decision trees can be solved with a hand calculator, while larger trees and Monte Carlo simulation usually require a computer. Software supporting these methods is now widely available as Microsoft® Excel spreadsheet add-ins and for other platforms. Much of the book is devoted to problem framing, decision modeling, and decision policy (including risk policy as a utility function). Throughout, real-world exploration examples are presented to illustrate the risk and decision analysis methods. This revised edition, 2.1, features an updated and expanded bibliography and an extensive glossary."synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
PAUL D. NEWENDORP Paul began his career in 1959 as a petroleum engineer for Pan American Petroleum Corporation (later Amoco Production Company). During educational leaves of absence he completed his MS and Doctorate degrees in Petroleum Engineering from the University of Oklahoma. In 1968, he developed a two-week short course on petroleum exploration economics and risk analysis. The course was based, in part, on his Doctoral research on decision theory and earlier industry work experience. For the next 21 years, Paul traveled throughout the world teaching his short course, “Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration.” During his career, Paul was an active member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. He served in various leadership roles and received numerous awards, including the SPE Section Service Award. In 1987-1988 he was appointed an SPE Distinguished Lecturer. He was also an associate member of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. JOHN R. SCHUYLER John attended Paul’s two-week course in 1978. Upon Paul’s retirement in 1988, with Paul's encouragement, John developed a successor course in petroleum decision analysis. He has presented over 300 short courses in 34 countries on six continents. Since 1990, John has been associated with PetroSkills and OGCI. His work experience includes VP and petroleum evaluation engineer for Security Pacific Bank, Manager-Business Systems for Cities Service Co.'s Petrochemicals Division, Sr. Management Consultant with a national CPA firm, Planning and Evaluation Analyst for Cities Service Oil Company, and VP-Administration, CFO, and co-founder of a small commercial products company. John holds B.S. and M.S. degrees in Mineral-Engineering Physics from Colorado School of Mines and an MBA from University of Colorado at Boulder. His professional designations include CAM, CCE, CMA, CMC, CPIM, PE (Colorado), and PMP. He is a member of AACEI, IMA, IMC, INFORMS, PMI, RMAG, SPE and SPEE. He has written over 40 articles and handbook chapters published in the professional literature and is the author of "Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects" published by Project Management Institute.
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