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Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation: Forecasting Business Cycles - Hardcover
Synopsis
Roy L. Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. As Nersesian demonstrates, such consumer attitudes as confidence in the future, fear of depression, even passing fads can have a profound effect on business activity and are often far more predictive of the future than are the thousands of mathematical equations used to develop a forecast built upon econometrics. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.
Nersesian's study is organized around a series of questions about the business cycle: If economic activity is influenced by the nature of decisions, and if decisions are based partly on human responses to such things as prices and costs, and partly on human emotions, shouldn't the forecasting process itself incorporate human behavior? If human behavior in turn is influenced by factors such as price, cost, and inventory, and the general level of confidence in the future, should these not be incorporated in the forecasting process? In order to address these questions, Nersesian creates a simple island society and demonstrates how to use simulation to assess the effects of elements that might cause a change of consumer sentiment during the forecast period. As Nersesian concludes, a change of consumer sentiment at any time during the forecast period can have significant implications for the accuracy or usefulness of a forecast used in the corporate planning process. Both students of forecasting and corporate planners will find Nersesian's work illuminating reading.
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About the Author
ROY L. NERSESIAN is Chair of the Management Department at the School of Business Administration, Monmouth College. He is the author of Computer Simulation in Business Decision Making also published by Quorum Books.
"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
- PublisherPraeger
- Publication date1990
- ISBN 10 0899304583
- ISBN 13 9780899304588
- BindingHardcover
- LanguageEnglish
- Number of pages249
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Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation (Hardcover)
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Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, Westport, 1990
ISBN 10: 0899304583
ISBN 13: 9780899304588
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Hardcover. Condition: new. Hardcover. Roy L. Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. As Nersesian demonstrates, such consumer attitudes as confidence in the future, fear of depression, even passing fads can have a profound effect on business activity and are often far more predictive of the future than are the thousands of mathematical equations used to develop a forecast built upon econometrics. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.Nersesian's study is organized around a series of questions about the business cycle: If economic activity is influenced by the nature of decisions, and if decisions are based partly on human responses to such things as prices and costs, and partly on human emotions, shouldn't the forecasting process itself incorporate human behavior? If human behavior in turn is influenced by factors such as price, cost, and inventory, and the general level of confidence in the future, should these not be incorporated in the forecasting process? In order to address these questions, Nersesian creates a simple island society and demonstrates how to use simulation to assess the effects of elements that might cause a change of consumer sentiment during the forecast period. As Nersesian concludes, a change of consumer sentiment at any time during the forecast period can have significant implications for the accuracy or usefulness of a forecast used in the corporate planning process. Both students of forecasting and corporate planners will find Nersesian's work illuminating reading. A challenge to traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle - human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780899304588
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Corporate Planning, Human Behavior, and Computer Simulation (Hardcover)
Published by
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, Westport, 1990
ISBN 10: 0899304583
ISBN 13: 9780899304588
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Hardcover. Condition: new. Hardcover. Roy L. Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. As Nersesian demonstrates, such consumer attitudes as confidence in the future, fear of depression, even passing fads can have a profound effect on business activity and are often far more predictive of the future than are the thousands of mathematical equations used to develop a forecast built upon econometrics. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.Nersesian's study is organized around a series of questions about the business cycle: If economic activity is influenced by the nature of decisions, and if decisions are based partly on human responses to such things as prices and costs, and partly on human emotions, shouldn't the forecasting process itself incorporate human behavior? If human behavior in turn is influenced by factors such as price, cost, and inventory, and the general level of confidence in the future, should these not be incorporated in the forecasting process? In order to address these questions, Nersesian creates a simple island society and demonstrates how to use simulation to assess the effects of elements that might cause a change of consumer sentiment during the forecast period. As Nersesian concludes, a change of consumer sentiment at any time during the forecast period can have significant implications for the accuracy or usefulness of a forecast used in the corporate planning process. Both students of forecasting and corporate planners will find Nersesian's work illuminating reading. A challenge to traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle - human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Shipping may be from our UK warehouse or from our Australian or US warehouses, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780899304588
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