Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks - Hardcover

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0849310873 ISBN 13: 9780849310874

Publisher: CRC Press, 2001

Synopsis

Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.

About this title

About the Author

Bilal M. Ayyub

From the Back Cover

Written in an easy-to-read style, this book deals with issues, background, and methods to identify experts, effectively elicit their opinions, and weigh other opinions in order to make practical decisions. It also provides philosophical information on knowledge, ignorance, information, and uncertainty as they relate to various systems. The book contains examples, applications, case studies, and references. It is for anyone who deals with experts or employs expert opinions to solve problems and make decisions. The book emphasizes the applications of the concepts presented.

Edition details

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Publication date: 2001
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0849310873
• ISBN 13: 9780849310874
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 324