A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China's, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery-and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.
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A Rand study analyzed trends in the development of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (centered on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) and multiple types of operations from 1996 to 2017.
Eric Heginbotham is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and specializes in East Asian political and security affairs. He was formerly a Senior Fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has published in Foreign Affairs, International Security, Current History, Military Review, and a number of edited volumes. He has also co-authored several RAND monographs and is the co-editor of China and the Developing World. He served as a Military Intelligence Officer in the U.S. Army Reserve for fourteen years, spent more than ten years in Asia and speaks and reads Chinese and Japanese. He received his PhD in Political Science from the MIT.
FORREST E. MORGAN is a policy analyst for the RAND Corporation. A recently retired Air Force officer, he has held such jobs as commander of a space operations detachment, staff officer at Headquarters Air Force Space Command and Headquarters United States Air Force. He is a graduate of the Air Force's prestigious strategy school, the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies and, after earning a doctorate in policy studies from the University of Maryland, College Park, returned to the SAASS as a member of the faculty.
Hagen writes and illustrates cover stories and travel features, as well as children's books.
Martin C. Libicki, a Senior Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation since 1998, works on the relationship between information technology and national security. He has written numerous monographs on the subject, notably What is Information Warfare, The Mesh and the Net: Speculations on Armed Conflict in a Time of Free Silicon, and Who Runs What in the Global Information Grid. Dr Libicki is also the editor of the RAND Textbook, New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking. His most recent assignments at RAND have been to develop a post-9/11 information technology strategy for the U.S. Department of Justice and DARPA's Terrorist Information Awareness program, conduct an information security analysis for the FBI, investigate targeting strategies of al Queda, and assess CIA's R&D venture, In-Q-Tel. He previously taught at the National Defense University. Dr Libicki received his Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley in 1978.
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