Worst-Case Scenarios - Softcover

Sunstein, Cass R.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0674032519 ISBN 13: 9780674032514

Publisher: Harvard University Press, 2009

Synopsis

Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction?

Cass Sunstein explores these and other worst-case scenarios and how we might best prevent them in this vivid, illuminating, and highly original analysis. Singling out the problems of terrorism and climate change, Sunstein explores our susceptibility to two opposite and unhelpful reactions: panic and utter neglect. He shows how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster―emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction. Finally, he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost–benefit analysis, especially when current generations are imposing risks on future generations.

Throughout, Sunstein uses climate change as a defining case, because it dramatically illustrates the underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and worst-case scenarios faced in our ordinary lives. Sunstein concludes that if we can avoid the twin dangers of overreaction and apathy, we will be able to ameliorate if not avoid future catastrophes, retaining our sanity as well as scarce resources that can be devoted to more constructive ends.

About this title

About the Author

Cass R. Sunstein is Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School. Recently named Senior Counselor to the US Department of Homeland Security, he is the author of many books, including Conformity and How Change Happens.

From the Back Cover

Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis, meteors hitting the earth: nightmares that were once the subjects of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. But how real are they--how should we assess their risks, and, if need be, take costly and risky measures to avoid them? How can we steer a path between being paralyzed by fear and and overreacting recklessly? Cass Sunstein assesses these scenarios and what legal and policy measures might be taken to counter them in this calm, carefully reasoned, and sensible primer. He first explores people's responses to worst-case scenarios and their susceptibility to two opposite behaviors: overreaction and neglect. These behaviors affect persons and governments alike. He then examines how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster. Finally, he offers an understanding of the role of cost-benefit analysis, especially when we are facing harms that will not come to fruition in the near future. Throughout he uses climate change as a defining case, because of its significance and because it clearly illustrates underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and the avian flu. At the end, Sunstein concludes, we can drive ourselves crazy obsessing about these scenarios. On the other hand, if we spend some time thinking about them, keeping in mind a few simple principles and not acting precipitately, we can lead longer, safer, and happier lives. Cass R. Sunstein is Karl Llewellyn Professor of Law and Jurisprudence, The University of Chicago.

Edition details

• Publisher: Harvard University Press
• Publication date: 2009
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0674032519
• ISBN 13: 9780674032514
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 352