Decision Analysis for Management Judgment - Hardcover

Goodwin, Paul; Wright, George

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 047192833X ISBN 13: 9780471928331

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, 1991

Synopsis

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face, particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. It shows how decision analysis can be applied so that difficult decisions can be made with greater insight and confidence, and challenges the adequacy of making decisions on the basis of intuition alone. Drawing on ideas from a variety of disciplines, including psychology, management, science and statistics, the book shows how judgement and statistical techniques can be combined to provide a structured and defensible basis for decision making.

About this title

From the Back Cover

Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established.

Extended and updated, this new edition contains a new chapter on structured risk and uncertainty management, updated coverage of research on how people make decisions, including fast and frugal heuristics, a detailed case study demonstrating the application of scenario planning and enhanced coverage of decision framing. Additional exercises have also been added to many chapters, while a companion web site contains valuable resources for lecturers and students. These include detailed answers to end-of-chapter exercises, PowerPoint slides, specimen examination papers and coursework with suggested answers, and links to other resources on the Internet, including downloadable software.

Assuming no prior knowledge of decision analysis, this book will help both practising managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and operations research courses.

Edition details

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
• Publication date: 1991
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 047192833X
• ISBN 13: 9780471928331
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 326