Demand–Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting (Wiley and SAS Business Series) - Hardcover

Chase Jr., Charles W.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0470415029 ISBN 13: 9780470415023

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, 2009

Synopsis

A detailed guide on the process of improving business forecasting

This practitioner–focused book provides readers with real, proven processes, methodologies, and performance metrics that can be applied immediately with significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Filled with real–life examples and case studies to illustrate both best–in–class approaches as well as initial start–up approaches, it features coverage of topics including myths versus reality of forecasting, how to perform a strategic value assessment, and cultural barriers in forecasting. Focused on the implementation and integration of sales forecasting and marketing analysis, this book outlines a systematic approach that is a data–based, mathematically derived framework using domain knowledge to facilitate "what if" simulations for strategic/tactical planning.

Charles Chase (Cary, NC) is the Business Enablement Manager for SAS Manufacturing and Supply Chain Global Practice.

About this title

About the Author

Charles W. Chase, Jr., is Chief Industry Consultant and Subject Matter Expert, SAS Institute Inc., where he is the principal architect and strategist for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve SAS customers′ supply chain efficiencies. He has more than twenty–six years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management.

From the Back Cover

Praise for Demand–Driven Forecasting

A Structured Approach to Forecasting

"There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well–suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand–Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development."
Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting & Analytics, Celgene Corporation

"Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for ′forecast rigor′ and the call for greater inclusion of ′client judgment.′ By advancing the use of ′domain knowledge′ and hypothesis testing to enrich base–case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies′ business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly."
Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company

A Structured Approach to Forecasting

Many companies still view quantitative forecasting methods as a "black box" or unknown approach that adds little value to improving overall demand forecast accuracy. Fortunately, there is a new awareness emerging across many industries of the value of integrating demand data into the demand forecasting process.

Equipping you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools, internationally renowned author and thought leader Charles Chase provides you with a basic understanding of the methods and processes required to implement a demand–driven forecasting process in Demand–Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting.

From a review of the most basic forecasting methods, to the most advanced time–series methods, and innovative techniques in use today, this guide defines demand–driven forecasting, uniquely offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict demand within a structured process.

A must–read for CEOs, CMOs, CFOs, supply chain managers, sales managers, marketing brand managers, and demand forecasting analysts, Demand–Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting covers:

• Myths versus realities of forecasting

• Causes of forecast error

• Purposes for measuring forecasting performance

• Forecasting methods using causal data

• Sensing, shaping, and linking demand to supply

• Combining analytics and domain knowledge in a structured framework

As a forecast practitioner, it′s up to you to demonstrate the value of analytics to senior–level managers. Filled with real–life examples to build a business case for the justification of demand–driven forecasting, Demand–Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting is your detailed blueprint to better understand this new structured approach and add significant improvement to demand forecast accuracy.

Edition details

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
• Publication date: 2009
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0470415029
• ISBN 13: 9780470415023
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 288