Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts - Hardcover

Joyner, K. C.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0470124091 ISBN 13: 9780470124093

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2008

Synopsis

ESPN.com Insider KC Joyner, "The Football Scientist," explores and explodes many of the myths of NFL football

Have free agency and salary caps put an end to football dynasties? Does it take an elite running back to win a Super Bowl? Which players belong in the Hall of Fame? What defense is the greatest of all time? Does playing creampuffs work for NFL teams? Do coaches have a ten-year shelf life?

In Blindsided, pro football's statistical iconoclast(TM) challenges conventional wisdom with fact-based and fi lm-based answers to these and many other key NFL questions. Whether you're a devout fantasy football player, a football fanatic, or a fan who wants the real, straight-from-the-fields-and-films scoop instead of the typical hype and hoopla, this book will inform and transform your thinking about the game.

About this title

About the Author

KC JOYNER is a regular contributor to ESPN.com's NFL Insider section, a football columnist for ESPN The Magazine, author of the annual Scientific Football, and Webmaster of the associated site TheFootballScientist.com. His works have been touted by many of the biggest names in football, ranging from Dr. Z to Steve Sabol, and featured in numerous national periodicals, including Slate.com and Playboy.

From the Back Cover

"When I found that the research proved that a significant portion of the big-name players weren't nearly as good as they were touted as being by many members of the media and NFL coaches, I knew that I was onto something." --KC Joyner

When sportswriters and commentators toss around superlatives as easily as quarterbacks toss short passes, how do you distinguish the hype from the facts? How can you get beyond the publicity and propaganda to objectively assess actual on-field performance? How do you refute conventional football wisdom?

You run the numbers. But wait; time-out. As this book laments, you can't get access to game footage, which is one of the reasons so many myths and misconceptions about pro football persist. Fortunately, KC Joyner (a.k.a. ESPN's "Football Scientist") does have the films--and the numbers. Joyner is pro football's premier game-tape analyst, using game fi lm to track, tabulate, and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. Now he shares it all with you in Blindsided, as he examines and debunks some of the game's biggest myths and legends. He analyzes stats for various positions, players, and teams as well as offering surprising insights into key football issues and concerns that range from the true value of the left tackle to who should or shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.

He discusses coaching and coaches at length. He delves into their background demographics, classifies them into four strategic/philosophical alignments, and explores their impact on the past and future of the game. He also takes a revealing look at current NFL business policies, including the current DirectTV and NFL Network deals, the financial disincentive of salary capping, and why the NFL's blackout rules make no economic sense.

Equipping you with both hard facts and an insider's insight, Joyner's in-depth, statistics-based analyses will help you understand and appreciate NFL football as never before.

From the Inside Flap

"When I found that the research proved that a significant portion of the big-name players weren't nearly as good as they were touted as being by many members of the media and NFL coaches, I knew that I was onto something."
--KC Joyner

When sportswriters and commentators toss around superlatives as easily as quarterbacks toss short passes, how do you distinguish the hype from the facts? How can you get beyond the publicity and propaganda to objectively assess actual on-field performance? How do you refute conventional football wisdom?

You run the numbers. But wait; time-out. As this book laments, you can't get access to game footage, which is one of the reasons so many myths and misconceptions about pro football persist. Fortunately, KC Joyner (a.k.a. ESPN's "Football Scientist") does have the films--and the numbers. Joyner is pro football's premier game-tape analyst, using game film to track, tabulate, and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. Now he shares it all with you in Blindsided, as he examines and debunks some of the game's biggest myths and legends. He analyzes stats for various positions, players, and teams as well as offering surprising insights into key football issues and concerns that range from the true value of the left tackle to who should or shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.

He discusses coaching and coaches at length. He delves into their background demographics, classifies them into four strategic/philosophical alignments, and explores their impact on the past and future of the game. He also takes a revealing look at current NFL business policies, including the current DirectTV and NFL Network deals, the financial disincentive of salary capping, and why the NFL's blackout rules make no economic sense.

Equipping you with both hard facts and an insider's insight, Joyner's in-depth, statistics-based analyses will help you understand and appreciate NFL football as never before.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Blindsided

Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football ThoughtsBy K.C. Joyner

John Wiley & Sons

Copyright © 2008 K.C. Joyner
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-470-12409-3

Chapter One

What Is the True Value of the Left Tackle?

Most of you are probably familiar with Michael Lewis's book The Blind Side. It recounts a young player's struggles to adapt to his new environment, but from a football sense Lewis paints a very compelling picture of how valuable the left tackle position is for NFL teams.

As excellent as Lewis's research was, after reading the book I was still left with some doubt as to the real value of the left tackle. I understood how much it meant to Bill Walsh to have someone capable of blocking Lawrence Taylor. I also had a better understanding of why left tackles are paid so much. But I still didn't get a good sense as to how much more valuable a left tackle was than, say, a right guard.

So what is the real value of the left tackle? We are told that the position is crucial in pass blocking, but where does run blocking fit into the equation? And when it comes to pass blocking, is the left tackle just an airbag (saves you from catastrophe in an accident) or is it antilock brakes (prevents the catastrophe and then some).

I believe the best way to find this out is to gauge both the run- and the pass-blocking value of left tackles by asking questions such as:

How many sacks does the typical left tackle give up versus sacks given up by other linemen?

How often do most teams run behind their left tackle versus running behind other linemen?

How many yards per attempt are gained on running plays behind the typical left tackle versus runs behind other linemen?

Let's start with the running game. In researching Scientific Football 2006, I broke down every running play in the NFL with a system that centered around which offensive linemen were being run behind on a particular play. It took four months of breaking down tape to get the database built, but at the end I had a very clear picture.

Here are the numbers by positional type:

POSITION ATTEMPTS % OF TOTAL ATTEMPTS

Tackles 4,888 32.6% Guards 6,602 44.1% Centers 3,494 23.3% Total 14,984 100.0%

(These attempts don't include certain types of plays such as kneeldowns or fumbled handoffs, as those plays would not have any run blocks to account for. There can be multiple blockers on each play as well, so the total number of carries is higher than the total number of runs during the NFL season.)

Tackles as a whole accounted for just under one-third of all run blocks. Here is how the numbers divided up between left and right tackles:

POSITION ATTEMPTS % OF TOTAL ATTEMPTS

Left Tackles 2,458 16.4% Right Tackles 2,321 15.5%

(Tackles who alternated between playing the left and right side were not included in either total.)

So from a running standpoint, left tackles accounted for only 16.4 percent of all run blocks in the 2005 season. This number shows that they really don't occupy an extra-special part of the running attack. That isn't entirely surprising, but it does give evidence as to their value in the running game.

In addition to tracking which lineman plays were being run behind, I also tracked the number of yards that were gained on those runs. Here are the numbers:

POSITION ATTEMPTS YARDS GAINED YPA

Tackles 4,888 23,079 4.7 Guards 6,602 31,288 4.7 Centers 3,494 16,064 4.6 Total 14,984 70,431 4.6

And here are the totals for left and right tackles:

POSITION ATTEMPTS YARDS GAINED YPA

Left Tackles 2,458 11,644 4.7 Right Tackles 2,321 11,000 4.7

When I first saw these numbers, I was a bit perplexed by the similarity of the yards per attempt (YPA). Each position had a wide range of yards per attempt from the best to the worst. For example, the best left tackle had a YPA of 7.8 yards, while the worst came in at 2.6 yards. There were similar variances at the other positions.

What I realized after thinking about it for a short while was that these metrics show what coaches have been saying for years: it takes an effort by the entire offense to make the running game work. Even though there are wide variances from lineman to lineman in yards per attempt, the overall YPA indicates that positional success in this category typically occurs when a group of linemen is successful. That indicates that even the best run blockers are dependent on the success of their offensive line mates.

The run studies confirm what we really already knew: left tackles aren't paid the big money to be anchors in the running game. Their perceived value is in the passing game, so let's take a look at that area.

The starting point in this discussion will be how many sacks the left tackles in the league gave up in 2005 (the season that was studied in Scientific Football 2006). Here are those numbers:

[TABLE OMITTED]

These totals look remarkably similar to the individual defensive sack totals from the 2005 season in that the worst linemen gave up 15.5 sacks, while the best pass rusher, Derrick Burgess, totaled 16 sacks. This means that a bad left tackle can lose a team as many games as a great pass rusher can win.

That poor tackle play can hurt a team really isn't a compelling argument for the position's value, because bad players at any position can cause a team to lose games. For example, the center position is often manned by an offensive line's weakest blocker, but if a team has to put in a backup center who isn't used to making the line calls, it will equal a loss just as quickly as a mediocre left tackle.

The next set of numbers I reviewed was the percentage of overall team sacks that each left tackle allowed. Putting the total in a percentage format will help put each left tackle's individual performance into perspective with the rest of the pass blockers on his team. I have included these totals below as sorted by the number of total sacks allowed by the team (for reasons that I will explain in a moment):

[TABLE OMITTED]

When I ran these figures, I noticed a trend, but the trend really only shows up when the previous list is sorted by the left tackle sack percentage, which I have done below:

[TABLE OMITTED]

The rankings in this chart are carried over from the total sacks allowed chart because I believe they make a great point: The left tackles with the fewest sacks allowed oftentimes play for the teams that allow the highest number of sacks.

For proof, consider that of the bottom fourteen left tackles on this list (starting with Miami's Damion McIntosh), nine played for teams that finished in the top ten in overall sacks allowed. If the six multiple left tackle pairings are removed from the bottom fourteen, seven of the remaining eight tackles still come from teams that ranked in the top ten in overall sacks allowed.

So what does this mean? In a nutshell, I think it means that defensive coordinators know the old adage that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. If a team has a weak offensive line, a defense will not bother attacking the left tackle.

To further illustrate this point, let's take two teams with identical sack numbers, the Cleveland Browns and the St. Louis Rams.

The Browns and the Rams tied for twenty-sixth in overall sacks allowed. Despite that lousy overall showing, both of their left tackles, Orlando Pace and L. J. Shelton, allowed only 5.5 sacks.

Pace and Shelton started all sixteen games, so their playing time was equal. There was a difference in the number of passes thrown by the Browns and the Rams. St. Louis passers threw 599 times versus Cleveland's total of 497. That equates to Shelton allowing a sack on 1.1 percent of total passes versus Pace's 0.9 percent, or one more sack on every 500 pass plays.

There was also a significant difference in the number of vertical passes for each team, as the Rams threw around 100 more vertical passes (11-plus yards or more downfield) than Cleveland did. That certainly raises Pace's performance over Shelton's significantly, but from a pure numbers standpoint it still wouldn't seem to justify the perceived performance difference between these two. Pace made both the Pro Bowl and one of the All-Pro teams in 2005. Shelton's overall play was so bad that the Browns let him go in free agency without much, if any, of a fight.

I believe the reason that Shelton and Pace had such similar numbers is that in both cases, the rest of the offensive linemen were mediocre. The blocking metrics from Scientific Football 2006 showed that Claude Terrell and Alex Barron were both struggling to hold their own for the Rams that year. St. Louis also had numerous offensive line injuries to deal with as well.

Cleveland had a similar, if not worse, situation. The metrics showed that Mike Pucillo was one of the worst offensive linemen in the NFL in 2005, yet he was in the lineup for ten games. Jeff Faine was an undersized center who had his share of troubles and was traded away after the year. The metrics also indicated that the rest of the Browns blockers were middle-of-the-road linemen.

Beating a left tackle to the corner to get to the quarterback requires a defensive player to go a long way. Beating an offensive line up the middle is a much faster way to get pressure, so defenses will choose that option whenever it is available. Since the middle of both Cleveland's and St. Louis's lines contained many potential pass-rush targets for a defense, there was no reason to target the left tackles very often. That is why Shelton's and Pace's sack totals were so close to each other.

When an offensive line is strong up the gut, however, the defense knows that coming up the gut is a low-percentage play. They will then put most of their pass-rushing eggs in the basket of beating the left tackle to the corner, especially if that left tackle isn't an elite pass blocker. What this would seem to indicate is that a team should not aim to pick up a top-of-the-line left tackle unless it has the rest of its offensive line already in place.

The other part of the 2005 numbers that stood out is that there didn't seem to be much of a correlation between having a great left tackle and winning. Of the ten teams with the lowest percentage of sacks allowed by the left tackle, only four made the playoffs. Contrast that to three playoff teams that had left tackle sack percentages in the bottom ten of that same category and it provides some evidence that it doesn't take a great left tackle to win.

In addition, look at the left tackles of the past few Super Bowl winners. The past six Super Bowl left tackles have been David Diehl, Tarik Glenn, Marvel Smith, Matt Light twice, and Roman Oben. Glenn was certainly one of the premier blindside protectors in the NFL, but Diehl, Smith, Light, and Oben have tallied only two Pro Bowl appearances and zero All-Pro nominations between them in their entire combined careers.

I believe the reason for this is that teams have known for a long time that dominant left tackles are very hard to come by. Because of this, offensive coordinators and personnel directors have tailored their play-calling and personnel acquisition efforts accordingly.

That would seem to go against what Lewis said in The Blind Side, but let's put his comments into perspective. In the pro football historical section of his book, Lewis was mostly giving us a review of the evolution of pass rushing and blocking in the 1980s. As important as it was for the 49ers to block Lawrence Taylor, and as much of an impact as Walsh's moves had on the NFL as a whole, let's not forget that a player of the talent level of the original LT comes around maybe once in a generation at most. There hasn't been another edge pass-rushing linebacker with the impact of Taylor since he left, so Walsh was responding to a rare personnel issue.

Edge pass-rushing linebackers are still around today, but contemporary 3-4 schemes use more deception than the 3-4 schemes from the early 1980s. Today's defenses don't rely as much on getting the edge linebacker in a one-on-one matchup against a left tackle, but instead try to get a mismatch anywhere they can on the line. That makes building a solid offensive line across the board much more important than just having one great pass-blocking left tackle.

Another way to put this is that a team can scheme to get by without a great left tackle until they play a team with a dominant pass-rushing linebacker. At that point, they have to either have an incredibly talented pass blocker or a good pass blocker combined with a very adaptable blocking system that can adjust for that level of pass rusher.

In the end, I hope that this study is only the first of many on this subject to be performed by future researchers. As it stands, the research seems to indicate that while the left tackle is important, the position doesn't seem to justify the huge salaries being thrown at it. And it likely won't be that valuable until another Lawrence Taylor appears on the horizon.

(Continues...)

Excerpted from Blindsidedby K.C. Joyner Copyright © 2008 by K.C. Joyner. Excerpted by permission.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
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Edition details

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
• Publication date: 2008
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0470124091
• ISBN 13: 9780470124093
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 272