The Map and the Territory 2.0: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting - Hardcover

Greenspan, Alan

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0241003598 ISBN 13: 9780241003596

Publisher: Allen Lane, 2013

Synopsis

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?

To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.

The Map and the Territory smartly updates our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioural economists and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.

Alan Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigour, wisdom and unprecedented experience, offers a master class in economic decision making.

ALAN GREENSPAN was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in economics from New York University. In 1954, he cofounded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan & Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006.

He is the author of the number one International bestseller The Age of Turbulence.

About this title

About the Author

Alan Greenspan was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from New York University. In 1954, he co-founded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan & Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006.

From the Back Cover

Praise for The Age of Turbulence:

'First rate ... The Age of Turbulence is intelligent in a way that few popular books on economics manage or even try to be ... an enjoyable read' Economist

'Revealing and penetrating' Sunday Times

'Unexpectedly charming, surprisingly frank ... The charm of Greenspan's book is its self-portrait ... the result is one of the more interesting characters in the history of our democracy' The New York Times

'Entertaining and insightful ... Greenspan is an oracle smart enough to know what he doesn't know ... such humility, coming from someone as powerful as Alan Greenspan, is disarmingly refreshing, as is this interesting and edifying book' Boston Globe

'Greenspan's voice is unique ... the stories are wonderful' Los Angeles Times

From the Inside Flap

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?

To answer this question, Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, and at every level, from government and business down to the home; whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. But, even when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control, the maps by which we are steering are often out-of-date.

The Map and the Territory smartly updates our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioural economists and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a lucid and empirical grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores the roles of differences of culture, and particularly of cultural inertia, in confounding our purely fiscal expectations, and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges - whether debt, the reform of the welfare state, the relationship of the West with China, or natural disasters in an age of global warming.

Alan Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigour, wisdom and unprecedented experience, offers a master class in economic decision making.

Edition details

• Publisher: Allen Lane
• Publication date: 2013
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0241003598
• ISBN 13: 9780241003596
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 400