Time the Markets: Using Technical Analysis to Interpret Economic Data, Revised Edition

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9780132931939: Time the Markets: Using Technical Analysis to Interpret Economic Data, Revised Edition

In Time the Markets, award-winning technical analyst Charles D. Kirkpatrick applies technical analysis to key economic indicators and shows how to use them to identify market shifts, avoid loss, and become a more profitable long-term investor.

 

Drawing on many years of publicly available data, Kirkpatrick demonstrates how to uncover powerful buy and sell signals and shows how to incorporate corporate, industry, monetary, sentiment, and market data into reliable timing indicators that can help you recognize impending stock and bond market dangers—and get out of the way.

 

Relying primarily on proven technical analysis methods, Kirkpatrick incorporates trading system methods that have proven successful in market timing, including trend and momentum analysis, use of protective and trailing stops, and periodicity. Reflecting the latest insights into behavioral finance, he shares important new insight into measuring marketplace momentum and sentiment—helping long-term investors identify and evade the marketplace irrationalities that often cause capital loss.

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From the Back Cover:

“It’s about time someone wrote this book. Kirkpatrick brings a unique perspective to the topic and bridges many gaps. Not only does he unite technical and fundamental analysis, but also academia and the real world. It is not often we find a book steeped in both the theoretical and the actual. Kirkpatrick has found what truly works when it comes to making money in the stock market.”

 

–Michael Kahn, CMT, Editor, “Quick Takes Pro” Market Letter, and Columnist, Barron’s Online

 

“Contains a wealth of wisdom. There are pearls scattered all throughout the book.”

 

–Richard J. Bauer, CFA, Ph.D., Professor of Finance, St. Mary’s University, San Antonio, Texas; Author of Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies and coauthor of

Technical Market Indicators

 

“Whether you are a fundamental analyst wanting to integrate technical analysis into investment decisions or a technical analyst interested in using economic data, this book is a must read. In an organized, easy-to-follow presentation, Kirkpatrick shows you not only what to do, but how and why to do it. This is your opportunity to learn from a master!”

 

–Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT, Senior Lecturer, University of Texas at San Antonio, and Editor, Journal of Technical Analysis

 

“Understanding and using fundamental information is a problem for most traders and technically oriented analysts, but Kirkpatrick has cut through the confusion to give all of us a tested, systematic way of really improving our investment performance. Everyone should re-examine their system to incorporate these findings.”

 

–Bruce M. Kamich, CMT, Adjunct Professor of Finance at Baruch College and President of the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation

 

“This is the logical next step for technical analysis: trading signals based on fundamental economic variables. Kirkpatrick inspires confidence by walking the reader carefully through exactly what he’s doing, including some fairly sophisticated data analysis techniques. The book resonates with his intelligence, honesty, and down-home charm.”

–Carol L. Osler, Associate Professor of Finance, Brandeis University

 

Stock investors who time markets based on business cycles can earn enormous profits, while others continue to swim upstream against rushing currents. In Time the Markets, Charles D. Kirkpatrick, II, offers a systematic, practical, and accessible methodology for identifying probable shifts in business cycles.

 

Overcoming the divide between fundamental and technical analysis, Kirkpatrick tests twenty-five publicly available economic indicators and identifies only three that, taken together, usually signal major market movements. You’ll learn which fundamental, economic, monetary, sentiment, and price data indicators work bestand which to avoid as redundant, time consuming, and only marginally helpful.

 

Kirkpatrick explains why market timing is crucial to reducing risk, reviews evidence about whether markets can be timed, and presents methods for neutralizing the risks of market decline. Next, he introduces easy-to-use technical methods for establishing where trends and oscillations are beginning or ending. Finally, he walks through tests of economic indicators to determine when markets are most likely to change direction–so you can ride the waves in rising markets and step aside when they plummet.

 

·Beyond the flawed Efficient Markets Hypothesis
Why market data shows that markets can be timed

 

·What you need to know about trends, momentum, and cycles
A quick technical analysis primer for long-term investors

 

·Timing systems that work: building, testing, and using them
Compiling your data and transforming it into usable insights

About the Author:

Charles D. Kirkpatrick, II, CMT, is president of Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc., a technical analysis research firm that publishes the Market Strategis investment newsletter. During his professional career, he was an institutional salesman, technical analyst, portfolio manager, hedge fund general partner, securities trading firm owner, option trader, floor trader, lecturer at universities, expert witness at security trials, small business owner, charitable foundation organizer and officer, and combat-decorated officer in Vietnam.   A past instructor in finance at the School of Business Administration, Fort Lewis College, Durango, Colorado, and recently Adjunct Professor of Finance at Brandeis University’s International Business School, he is the only two-time winner of the Market Technicians Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award for research in technical analysis and winner of the Market Technicians Association 2008 Annual Award for “outstanding contributions to the field of technical analysis.”   He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), a past member of the board of directors of the Market Technicians Association, and past editor of the Journal of Technical Analysis. He is a past member and vice president of the board of the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation and is currently a member of the American Association of Professional Technicians (AAPTA).   In addition to more than ten published articles on aspects of the stock and bond markets, he coauthored Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, the primary textbook for the CMT program and for university graduate courses in technical analysis, and he authored Beat the Market, a book on relative strength stock selection. A graduate of Phillips Exeter Academy, Harvard College (AB), and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania (MBA), he lives in Maine with his wife of almost 50 years.

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