Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning - Softcover

Nickerson, Raymond S.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0805848991 ISBN 13: 9780805848991

Publisher: Routledge, 2004

Synopsis

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists.

Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

About this title

Review:

"The author is acknowledged as a clear and interesting writer. The present work is consistent with that reputation."

Synopsis:

The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation to better prepare the reader to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information, and critically evaluate the likelihood of clams. For this reason, the book appeals to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and those who evaluate social dilemmas. The only prerequisite is standard high school math. In the book, Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions

About this edition

• Publisher: Routledge
• Publication date: 2004
• ISBN 10: 0805848991
• ISBN 13: 9780805848991
• Binding: Paperback
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 532