Hubbert′s Peak – The Impending World Oil Shortage: The Impending World Oil Shortage - Revised and Updated Edition - Hardcover

Deffeyes, Kenneth S

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0691090866 ISBN 13: 9780691090863

Publisher: Princeton University Press, 2001

Synopsis

Geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970.

In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.

About this title

Review:

One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2002
Honorable Mention for the 2001 Award for Best Professional/Scholarly Book in Geography and Earth Science, Association of American Publishers
"Deffeyes has reached a conclusion with far-reaching consequences for the entire industrialized world. . . . The conclusion is this: in somewhere between two and six years from now, worldwide oil production will peak. After that, chronic shortages will become a way of life. The 100-year reign of King Oil will be over."--Fred Guterl, Newsweek

"A most readable handbook. . . . If [Deffeyes] is right we have, at most, two or three years in which to prepare for yet another price shock, and to accelerate our move away from oil as fuel. The strength of the book lies in its solid background and well-explained basis for that single prediction."--Stuart Young, Nature

"Deffeyes makes a persuasive case. . . . This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening."--Paul Raeburn, Scientific American

"An important new book."--Robert Kuttner, Boston Globe

"The story behind Hubbert's analysis--is told with engaging wit, humor, and great insight. . . . Deffeyes writes with the taut reasoning of a scientist and the passion of someone raised in the industry. . . . His background is ideal for the subject, and the book is a gem. . . . Read Hubbert's Peak."--Brian J. Skinner, American Scientist

"[Some] experts . . . worry that the global peak in production will come in the next decade. . . . A heavyweight has now joined this gloomy chorus. Kenneth Deffeyes argues in a lively new book that global oil production could peak as soon as 2004."--The Economist

"A persuasive prophecy. Hubbert's story is important and needs to be told. I suspect that historians in years to come will recognise Hubbert's Peak as a historical turning point."--Tim Burnhill, New Scientist

"Deffeyes, using Hubbert's methodology, shows that the trajectory of world reserves is closely following the pattern of U.S. discovery and depletion, with just a few decades' lag. Drilling deeper, in more remote locations, and with more elaborate technologies won't tap reserves that don't exist. . . . America's energy policy needs to tilt away from oil and in favor of conservation, new technology, and domestic renewables. The time to act is now, before the next wave of gas lines and rationing is upon us."--Robert Kuttner, Business Week

"In the politics of oil, the left is passionately, sentimentally, tree-huggingly pro-environment, while the right shrugs as it climbs into its official mascot, the biggest sport utility vehicle available. . . . In the slide down Hubbert's Peak, political differences will matter less. If those who planned the Sept. 11 attacks know as much about economics as they do about aeronautics, their next target may be the Saudi Arabian oil fields, on which America, Asia, and Europe are overly dependent."--Martin Nolan, The Boston Globe

Synopsis:

Were the energy concerns of 2000 a preview of everyone's future? Will gas lines in the coming years make those of 1973 look short? Is the present chaos in oil prices the leading edge of a more serious crisis that will rock national economies around the world? According to Kenneth Deffeyes, a geologist with extensive personal experience in the oil industry, the answer to all of these questions is "yes". World oil production is peaking and will start to fall for good sometime during the first decade of the 21st century. In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert - then working at the Shell research lab in Houston - predicted that US oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1971. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's Peak - a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form. Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Deffeyes finds that a peak in world oil production is less than five years away.

And he argues that new exploration and production technologies can't save us. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot - and almost certainly will not - be enacted in time to evade short-term catastrophe. Perhaps most surprising is that none of this is news to most specialists and many associated with the petroleum industry. But politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Deffeyes wants to make sure they do. Generally accessible and filled with anecdotes, his book demonstrates to the general reader why a global energy crisis is just around the corner.

About this edition

• Publisher: Princeton University Press
• Publication date: 2001
• ISBN 10: 0691090866
• ISBN 13: 9780691090863
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 220