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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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9780141034591: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty.

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Review:

Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling (Freakonomics)

An idiosyncratically brilliant new book (Sunday Telegraph)

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected (Guardian)

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling (Financial Times)

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot (Sunday Times)

In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point (Time)

From the Publisher:

Shortlisted for the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2007

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9789953876122: The Black Swan (Arabic Edition)

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ISBN 10: 9953876126 ISBN 13: 9789953876122
Publisher: Arab Scientific Publishers, 2009
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Book Description Paperback. Condition: New. Trade Paperback. Language: English. Brand new Book. The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertaintyWhat have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. 'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide . I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent. Seller Inventory # AAZ9780141034591

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Book Description Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics- it's unpredictable; carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals that we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world. What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780141034591

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Book Description Paperback. Condition: New. Trade Paperback. Language: English. Brand new Book. The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertaintyWhat have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. 'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide . I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent. Seller Inventory # FOY9780141034591

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