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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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9780141034591: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty.

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Review:

Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling (Freakonomics)

An idiosyncratically brilliant new book (Sunday Telegraph)

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected (Guardian)

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling (Financial Times)

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot (Sunday Times)

In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point (Time)

From the Publisher:

Shortlisted for the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2007

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9789953876122: The Black Swan (Arabic Edition)

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ISBN 10: 9953876126 ISBN 13: 9789953876122
Publisher: Arab Scientific Publishers, 2009
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