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A new theory of protracted war: China's growth strategy(Chinese Edition)

ZHAO CHANG WEN . ZHU HONG MING ZHU

ISBN 10: 7508667131 / ISBN 13: 9787508667133
New Condition: New Hardcover
From liu xing (JiangSu, JS, China)

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Hardcover. Pub Date: 2016-12-01 Pages: $number Language: Chinese publisher: Citic Publishing house Citic Publishing Group A new Theory of protracted war: China's growth strategy under the newly normal situation discusses the strategic issues of China's economic growth over the next 5-10 years. The basic conclusion is: the strategic persistence of protracted war! Only in this way can China continue its growth miracle . Bookseller Inventory # DP022152

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Title: A new theory of protracted war: China's ...

Binding: Hardcover

Book Condition: New

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《持久战新论:新常态下的中国增长战略》讨论未来五至十年中国经济增长的战略问题。基本结论是:战略上坚持持久战!只有这样,中国才能延续增长奇迹,实现翻番目标,全面建成小康社会,跨越中等收入陷阱,并为实现现代化和中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦奠定坚实基础。作为一种战略,持久战既要解决"怎么看"的问题,更要解决"怎么办"的问题。一方面,持久战不是指中国经济长期不好甚至一直走下坡路,而是一种与崩溃论和反转论有本质区别的认识,即:短期内,由于存在债务病、利润病、泡沫病等严重经济污染而面临严峻挑战;长期看,中国是一个革新型发展中大国,具有较强后发优势和体制可改革性,经济前景向好。另一方面,持久战不是等、熬、忍,而是一套推动从短期严峻向长期向好转化的战略战术安排,即:要依靠有效政府和有为干部;要坚持阶段论、歼灭战和速决战;要以实质性调整并辅之以必要的调控来治理经济污染;要积极防御金融危机;要发挥政治家在维持体制可改革性中的核心作用;要推动创新导向型改革;要充分利用全球化的力量。李伟林毅夫作序!持久战、歼灭战、速决战;阶段论、改革论、协调论这就是适应和引领新常态的战略、战术和政策。全书共分九章。第一章为"后发优势、体制可改革性与政治-经济生态--关于持久战的一个分析框架"。本章是全书的理论框架,构建了一个包括后发优势、体制可改革性和政治-经济生态等核心概念的用于分析经济增长绩效的框架。后发优势和体制可改革性是决定经济增长的两个关键因素。根据这两个维度,可以将不同经济体分为四类--革新型发展中经济体、革新型发达经济体、僵化型发展中经济体和僵化型发达经济体。每一种类型的经济体在长期增长绩效方面的差异,既取决于是否仍具有后发优势,也取决于决定后发优势能否得以实现的体制可改革性。在此基础上,我们进一步引入了政治-经济生态,以解释经济的短期绩效。基于该框架,对于一个正在经历下行的经济体而言,存在经济反转、长期停滞和持久战三种前景,分别对应于后发优势、体制可改革性和政治-经济生态的不同组合。中国是较强后发优势、较强体制可改革性和政治-经济生态欠佳的组合,其经济前景是持久战。此外,本章还重点讨论了体制可改革性、经济生态与经济污染。我们认为,体制可改革性比改革本身更重要,它是改革动力和改革阻力这两个矛盾着的力量综合作用的结果。其中,改革阻力主要是利益集团和意识形态束缚;在改革动力中,政治家--政治领域企业家或一切愿意并能够真正推动制度创新的政治人物--是最活跃、最具决定性的因素。政治家又有领袖政治家和一般政治家之分。前者在政治领域享有很高的权威,对改革方向和改革进程具有关键影响力,他们负责为一般政治家的制度创新或改革实践创造一个适宜的宏观环境,引领制度创新。后者是制度创新的实践主体。政治家能否涌现并发挥作用则取决于是否有适宜的政治生态。在经济生态和经济污染部分,我们根据熊彼特的"循环流转-经济发展"框架,区分了两个层次的经济生态--"循环流转"需要的经济生态和"经济发展"需要的经济生态,并识别了四类主要的经济污染:货币病、债务病、泡沫病和利润病。第二章为"崩溃论、反转论与持久战"。本章首先介绍了国内外关于中国经济前景的两种错误论调--经济崩溃论和经济反转论

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