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Published by Crown, 2015
ISBN 10: 0804136696ISBN 13: 9780804136693
Seller: gwdetroit, Detroit, MI, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Good. WE DO NOT SELL TOYS! Fast Shipping - Safe and Secure Bubble Mailer! Thank you for supporting Goodwill Detroit!.
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Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0691128715ISBN 13: 9780691128719
Seller: HPB-Emerald, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Book
Paperback. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!.
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Published by Crown (edition Reprint), 2016
ISBN 10: 0804136718ISBN 13: 9780804136716
Seller: BooksRun, Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A.
Book
Paperback. Condition: Good. Reprint. Ship within 24hrs. Satisfaction 100% guaranteed. APO/FPO addresses supported.
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Published by Stanford University Press, 1994
ISBN 10: 0804724822ISBN 13: 9780804724821
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Good. Reissue. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.
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Published by Signal, 2015
ISBN 10: 0771070527ISBN 13: 9780771070525
Seller: HPB-Red, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Book
hardcover. Condition: Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!.
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Published by Cornerstone, United Kingdom, London, 2016
ISBN 10: 1847947158ISBN 13: 9781847947154
Seller: WorldofBooks, Goring-By-Sea, WS, United Kingdom
Book
Paperback. Condition: Very Good. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times. The book has been read, but is in excellent condition. Pages are intact and not marred by notes or highlighting. The spine remains undamaged.
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Published by Cambridge University Press, 1993
ISBN 10: 0521407702ISBN 13: 9780521407700
Seller: SecondSale, Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Good. Item in good condition. Textbooks may not include supplemental items i.e. CDs, access codes etc.
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Published by Cambridge University Press, 1991
ISBN 10: 0521402557ISBN 13: 9780521402552
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Very Good. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.
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Published by Yale University Press, 1996
ISBN 10: 0300065353ISBN 13: 9780300065350
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Very Good. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.
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Published by Oxford Univ Pr on Demand, 1990
ISBN 10: 019505766XISBN 13: 9780195057669
Seller: Pomfret Street Books, Carlisle, PA, U.S.A.
Book
Soft cover. Condition: Very Good. Binding Tight Minor Underlining Minor Edge Wear Previous Owner's Name On First Page. Book.
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Published by Princeton University Press, 2017
ISBN 10: 0691175977ISBN 13: 9780691175973
Seller: Textbooks_Source, Columbia, MO, U.S.A.
Book
paperback. Condition: Good. Revised. Ships in a BOX from Central Missouri! May not include working access code. Will not include dust jacket. Has used sticker(s) and some writing or highlighting. UPS shipping for most packages, (Priority Mail for AK/HI/APO/PO Boxes).
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Published by Oxford University Press, 1990
ISBN 10: 0195057686ISBN 13: 9780195057683
Seller: Firefly Bookstore, Kutztown, PA, U.S.A.
Book
Trade Paperback. Condition: Used Good. Volume II only Firefly sells new and used books through our store front. We try to add a detailed description to as many titles as possible. If you have questions regarding this title, please contact us. Photos available on request.
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Published by Princeton University Press, 2005
ISBN 10: 0691123020ISBN 13: 9780691123028
Seller: HPB-Red, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Book
hardcover. Condition: Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!.
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Published by Random House Books, 2015
ISBN 10: 184794714XISBN 13: 9781847947147
Seller: MusicMagpie, Stockport, United Kingdom
Book
Condition: Very Good. 1704280891. 1/3/2024 11:21:31 AM.
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Published by Yale University Press, 1996
ISBN 10: 0300069812ISBN 13: 9780300069815
Seller: Midtown Scholar Bookstore, Harrisburg, PA, U.S.A.
Book
Paperback. Condition: Good. Good - Bumped and creased book with tears to the extremities, but not affecting the text block, may have remainder mark or previous owner's name - GOOD PAPERBACK Standard-sized.
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Published by Stanford University Press, 1993
ISBN 10: 0804721327ISBN 13: 9780804721325
Seller: POQUETTE'S BOOKS, DEWITT, MI, U.S.A.
Book
Hardcover. Condition: Good.
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Published by Princeton University Press, 1996
ISBN 10: 0691027919ISBN 13: 9780691027913
Seller: Solr Books, Skokie, IL, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Good. Examination Copy - May say Not for Resale. Same content as Student Edition.
Published by Oxford University Press, USA, 1990
ISBN 10: 0195057651ISBN 13: 9780195057652
Seller: Ergodebooks, Houston, TX, U.S.A.
Book
Hardcover. Condition: Used: Good.
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Published by Harvard Business Review Press, 2020
ISBN 10: 1633698866ISBN 13: 9781633698864
Seller: Bookmans, Tucson, AZ, U.S.A.
Book
paperback. Condition: Good. . Satisfaction 100% guaranteed.
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Published by ARENES, 2020
Seller: Big River Books, Powder Springs, GA, U.S.A.
Book
Condition: Good. The cover may have some normal wear. The text has no notes or markings.
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Published by Cambridge University Press, 1991
ISBN 10: 0521402557ISBN 13: 9780521402552
Seller: Rosario Beach Rare Books, Mill Creek, WA, U.S.A.
Book First Edition
Hardcover. Condition: Near Fine. Dust Jacket Condition: Very Good. 1st Edition.
Published by University of Michigan Press, 2006
ISBN 10: 0472031430ISBN 13: 9780472031436
Seller: HPB Inc., Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
Book
Paperback. Condition: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!.
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Published by Broadway, 2015
Seller: Russell Books, Victoria, BC, Canada
Condition: Very Good.
Published by Oxford University Press, 1990
ISBN 10: 0195057678ISBN 13: 9780195057676
Seller: ccbooksellers, Front Royal, VA, U.S.A.
Book
Hardcover. Condition: Very Good. cover shows minor shelf wear. pages are clean and unmarked. 2.
Published by Signal, 2016
ISBN 10: 0771070543ISBN 13: 9780771070549
Seller: Dragonfly Books, Victoria, BC, Canada
Book
Soft Cover. Condition: Good. No Jacket. 340 pages. May require extra postage. Canada Post does not give tracking numbers on books to the U.S. under 1 kilogram (2 lbs). Size: Trade Paperback. Used.
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Published by KATZ BARPAL EDITORES, 2017
ISBN 10: 8415917279ISBN 13: 9788415917274
Seller: KALAMO LIBROS, S.L., La Puebla de Montalbán, TO, Spain
Book
Encuadernación de tapa blanda. Condition: Nuevo. 326 pp. Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los 'expertos' predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se toman decisiones geopolíticas, de políticas públicas, de inversión, etcétera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardner muestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia empírica recogida a lo largo de años de investigación, que los 'pronosticadores expertos' tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que un chimpancé. En contraposición, los autores se centran en estudiar a los 'superpronosticadores': personas que tienen una gran capacidad de predicción. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son 'gente común', no son especialistas, ni tienen acceso a información privilegiada.
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Published by Capitán Swing Libros, 2016
ISBN 10: 8494504355ISBN 13: 9788494504358
Seller: medimops, Berlin, Germany
Book
Gut/Very good: Buch bzw. Schutzumschlag mit wenigen Gebrauchsspuren an Einband, Schutzumschlag oder Seiten. / Describes a book or dust jacket that does show some signs of wear on either the binding, dust jacket or pages.
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Published by Princeton University Press, 2006
Seller: Llibres Bombeta, Terrassa, BCN, Spain
Encuadernación de tapa blanda. Condition: Aceptable.
Published by Capitán Swing, Madrid, 2016
Seller: LIBRERÍA GULLIVER, MADRID, Spain
Rústicas con solapas 447 pags.
Editorial Capitán Swing Libros, S.L. Traducción de Jorge Sola. Título original: "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2005). Diseño Gráfico: Filo Estudio. Corrección ortotipográfica: Victoria Parra Ortiz. Madrid, 2016. Ensayo. Ciencia. Psicología. Política. Encuadernación en Tapa Blanda de editorial Ilustrada en delantera y trasera con Solapas. Estado de Conservación: COMO NUEVO el cuerpo e interior del libro en cuanto a su lectura y compostura. INTACTO. COMO NUEVA la cubierta. 22x14 cms. 447 páginas. Los fallos de inteligencia en torno a la invasión de Irak ilustran dramáticamente la necesidad de desarrollar estándares para evaluar la opinión de los expertos. En este estudio, Tetlock explora lo que constituye el buen juicio en la predicción de acontecimientos futuros, analizando por qué los pronósticos de los expertos son a menudo tan deficientes. Durante más de dos décadas llevó a cabo un registro que incluía unos 82.000 pronósticos de 284 expertos. ¿El resultado? Las predicciones fueron, en promedio, ligeramente más acertadas que las suposiciones al azar, pero el mercado de ideas no elimina a los malos expertos debido a que, en parte, no existe una rendición de cuentas. Basándose en la famosa distinción entre "zorros" y "erizos" del filósofo Isaiah Berlin, Tetlock considera erizos a los expertos proclives a una visión limitada y coherente del mundo desde firmes convicciones ideológicas. Los zorros, sin embargo, tienen la capacidad de ajustar sus opiniones, son más cautelosos, pragmáticos, tendientes a dudar de sí mismos e inclinados a ver la complejidad y los matices. Si bien no ofrecen grandes titulares y citas, tienen probabilidades mucho mayores de acertar con sus conjeturas. ÍNDICE: Agradecimientos. Prefacio 1. Cuantificar lo incuantificable. 2. El desafío desmoralizador del escepticismo radical. 3. Conocer los límites de nuestro propio conocimiento. Los zorros obtienen mejores puntuaciones que los erizos en ajuste y discriminación. 4. Hacerse cargo de las apuestas. Los zorros son mejores bayesianos que los erizos. 5. Considerar los contrafácticos: Los zorros están más dispuestos a contemplar escenarios alternativos que los erizos. 6. El contraataque de los erizos. 7. ¿Somos lo suficientemente abiertos como para reconocer los límites de la amplitud de miras? 8. Los límites de la objetividad y la rendición de cuentas. Apéndice Metodológico. Apéndice Técnico. .-ATENCIÓN: Gastos de envío gratuitos a España por CORREO ORDINARIO, sin número de seguimiento (pueden sufrir retrasos). Por CORREOS, CERTIFICADO A DOMICILIO, de 2 a 5 días, + 3,5 euros. LIBRERÍA ROBESPIERRE garantiza la devolución del importe si el libro no se corresponde con la descripción.