Expert Political Judgment – How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - Softcover

Tetlock, Philip E.

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0691128715 ISBN 13: 9780691128719

Publisher: Princeton University Press, 2006

Synopsis

[ EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT HOW GOOD IS IT? HOW CAN WE KNOW? BY TETLOCK, PHILIP E.](AUTHOR)PAPERBACK

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Review

ÝThis¨ book . . . Marshals powerful evidence to make Ýits¨ case. Expert Political Judgment . . . Summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project. . . . The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that "experts" exist at all. -- Geoffrey Colvin "Fortune"
Tetlock uses science and policy to brilliantly explore what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and to examine why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. -- Choice
Tetlock uses science and policy to brilliantly explore what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and to examine why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. -- "Choice

It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as "analysts" and "experts." . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself.--Louis Menand "The New Yorker "

The definitive work on this question. . . . Tetlock systematically collected a vast number of individual forecasts about political and economic events, made by recognised experts over a period of more than 20 years. He showed that these forecasts were not very much better than making predictions by chance, and also that experts performed only slightly better than the average person who was casually informed about the subject in hand.--Gavyn Davies "Financial Times "

[This] book . . . Marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case. Expert Political Judgment . . . Summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project. . . . The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that "experts" exist at all.--Geoffrey Colvin "Fortune "

Before anyone turns an ear to the panels of pundits, they might do well to obtain a copy of Phillip Tetlock's new book "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" The Berkeley psychiatrist has apparently made a 20-year study of predictions by the sorts who appear as experts on TV and get quoted in newspapers and found that they are no better than the rest of us at prognostication.--Jim Coyle "Toronto Star "

Phillip E. Tetlock does a remarkable job . . . applying the high-end statistical and methodological tools of social science to the alchemistic world of the political prognosticator. The result is a fascinating blend of science and storytelling, in the the best sense of both words.--William D. Crano "PsysCRITIQUES "

Philip Tetlock has just produced a study which suggests we should view expertise in political forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists--with the same skepticism that the well-informed now apply to stockmarket forecasting. . . . It is the scientific spirit with which he tackled his project that is the most notable thing about his book, but the findings of his inquiry are important and, for both reasons, everyone seriously concerned with forecasting, political risk, strategic analysis and public policy debate would do well to read the book.--Paul Monk "Australian Financial Review "

Mr. Tetlock's analysis is about political judgment but equally relevant to economic and commercial assessments.--John Kay "Financial Times "

From the Back Cover

"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting. Tetlock also offers a unique example of even-handed social science. This may be the first book I have seen in which the arguments and objections of opponents are presented with as much care as the author's own position."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, recipient of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic sciences

"This book is a major contribution to our thinking about political judgment. Philip Tetlock formulates coding rules by which to categorize the observations of individuals, and arrives at several interesting hypotheses. He lays out the many strategies that experts use to avoid learning from surprising real-world events."--Deborah W. Larson, University of California, Los Angeles

"This is a marvelous book--fascinating and important. It provides a stimulating and often profound discussion, not only of what sort of people tend to be better predictors than others, but of what we mean by good judgment and the nature of objectivity. It examines the tensions between holding to beliefs that have served us well and responding rapidly to new information. Unusual in its breadth and reach, the subtlety and sophistication of its analysis, and the fair-mindedness of the alternative perspectives it provides, it is a must-read for all those interested in how political judgments are formed."--Robert Jervis, Columbia University

"This book is just what one would expect from America's most influential political psychologist: Intelligent, important, and closely argued. Both science and policy are brilliantly illuminated by Tetlock's fascinating arguments."--Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University

Edition details

• Publisher: Princeton University Press
• Publication date: 2006
• ISBN 10: 0691128715
• ISBN 13: 9780691128719
• Binding: Paperback
• Language: English
• Number of pages: 344