Scenario Planning: Second Edition - Hardcover

Ringland, Gill

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 047001881X ISBN 13: 9780470018811

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, 2006

Synopsis

Scenario planning has received much top–level interest in the corporate sector as a way of realistically assessing the long–term future. Yet seldom are line managers included in initiatives, even though their exposure to customers and competitors means they often pick up subtle signals that are the first alert of changes to the operating environment. By exposing line managers to alternative scenarios, organizations can reduce the risk of ignoring the small environmental changes that are the advance warning for major discontinuities. Now completely updated in a new edition, the message of this practical, hands–on guide is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Taking a conceptual rather than mathematical approach, it includes a wealth of case studies, checklists, early indicators and examples.

About this title

About the Author

After research at the University of California, Berkeley and as a Fellow at Somerville College, Oxford, Gill Ringland had a career in the IT industry. After roles in software houses, process control and semiconductor companies, she joined ICL. There she was responsible for building a £3bn new business over five years. As Head of Strategy she used scenarios to understand the complexities of the Information & Communications industry and map ICL s future.
Gill is a past Member of SRC s Computing Science Committee and of the Council of the Economic and Social Research Council. She is a Court Assistant of the Information Technologists Livery Company, an ICL Fellow Emeritus, a Fellow of the British Computer Society and Graduate of Stanford s Senior Executive Program.
Since 2002 Gill has written and consulted widely as Fellow and Chief Executive of St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI). She is the author of three books Scenario Planning, Scenarios in Business and Scenarios in Public Policy all published by Wiley. Scenarios in Marketing, co–authored with Laurie Young, is currently in preparation.

From the Back Cover

"Featuring a comprehensive survey of scenario building techniques backed up by real–world examples, Ringland′s excellent Scenario Planningserves as a superb introduction to the concepts, processes, and purposes of scenario building, whether for graduate students in foresight, or corporate planners and decision–makers."
Professor Wendy Schultz, Director, Infinite Futures and Fellow, World Futures Studies Federation

"Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must–read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice."
Arie De Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of The Living Company

"Information technology will change how, where, when we work. Scenario Planning offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to this and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change."
Dr Oliver Sparrow, Challenge Forum

Now fully revised and updated, Scenario Planning is a classic work of business strategy. Its clear, inclusive approach to learning from the future distinguishes it from the competition, while its unmatched breadth of case studies make it an essential aid for managers seeking to implement scenario techniques. Key features of the Second Edition include a review of available methods and how to access them, detailed coverage of early indicators , and a wealth of new cases including Shell, Morgan Stanley Japan, and Finland s use of climate change scenarios. What happened next sections for case studies from the first edition are also included.

Packed with clear lessons and straightforward advice, Scenario Planning tells you what works, when it works and why. The book s overall message is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but effective weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future.

From the Inside Flap

The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable, those possibilities were limited and the decisions they informed had a good chance of being sound. But now, the only constant is change itself. And, in a world where rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can often seem to be based more on luck than on judgement.

Despite the accelerating pace of change, there are methods for coping with unpredictability. The techniques described in this book will help you to think about uncertainty in a structured way, while new and updated case studies of scenario planning at work show that when theory becomes practice it can have a potent effect on organizational performance.

Complex times demand powerful tools. Scenario Planning delivers these tools, with the clear warning that those who feel the approach is too futurist to take seriously should think again.

Edition details

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
• Publication date: 2006
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 047001881X
• ISBN 13: 9780470018811
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 2
• Number of pages: 482