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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Published by
W. W. Norton & Company (edition ), 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Used
Paperback
Seller: BooksRun, Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A.
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Paperback. Condition: Good. Ship within 24hrs. Satisfaction 100% guaranteed. APO/FPO addresses supported. Seller Inventory # 0393541983-11-1
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
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Paperback. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.05. Seller Inventory # G0393541983I4N00
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: ThriftBooks-Dallas, Dallas, TX, U.S.A.
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Paperback. Condition: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 1.05. Seller Inventory # G0393541983I3N00
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: GreatBookPricesUK, Woodford Green, United Kingdom
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Condition: As New. Unread book in perfect condition. Seller Inventory # 41730217
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Radical Uncertainty (Paperback)
Published by
WW Norton & Co, New York, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
New
Paperback
Seller: CitiRetail, Stevenage, United Kingdom
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Shipping may be from our UK warehouse or from our Australian or US warehouses, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780393541984
Quantity: 1 available
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Radical Uncertainty
Seller: Rarewaves USA United, OSWEGO, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Seller Inventory # LU-9780393541984
Quantity: 8 available
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: GreatBookPricesUK, Woodford Green, United Kingdom
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: New. Seller Inventory # 41730217-n
Quantity: 1 available
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Radical Uncertainty
Seller: Rarewaves.com UK, London, United Kingdom
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Seller Inventory # LU-9780393541984
Quantity: 8 available
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Kennys Bookshop and Art Galleries Ltd., Galway, GY, Ireland
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Condition: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Seller Inventory # V9780393541984
Quantity: 15 available
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Kennys Bookstore, Olney, MD, U.S.A.
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Condition: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Seller Inventory # V9780393541984
Quantity: 15 available