Items related to Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Synopsis
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.
The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Authors
John Kay is an economist and Fellow of St. John's College, University of Oxford.
Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, teaches at New York University and the London School of Economics.
"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
Other Popular Editions of the Same Title
Search results for Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Published by
W. W. Norton & Company (edition ), 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
Used
Paperback
Seller: BooksRun, Philadelphia, PA, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: Good. It's a preowned item in good condition and includes all the pages. It may have some general signs of wear and tear, such as markings, highlighting, slight damage to the cover, minimal wear to the binding, etc., but they will not affect the overall reading experience. Seller Inventory # 0393541983-11-1
Quantity: 1 available
Seller Image
Radical Uncertainty (Paperback)
Published by
WW Norton & Co, New York, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
New
Paperback
Seller: CitiRetail, Stevenage, United Kingdom
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Shipping may be from our UK warehouse or from our Australian or US warehouses, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780393541984
Quantity: 1 available
Seller Image
Radical Uncertainty
Seller: Rarewaves USA United, OSWEGO, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Seller Inventory # LU-9780393541984
Quantity: 8 available
Seller Image
Radical Uncertainty
Seller: Rarewaves.com UK, London, United Kingdom
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: New. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one-not least Steve Jobs-knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package-what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?-demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Seller Inventory # LU-9780393541984
Quantity: 8 available
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Kennys Bookshop and Art Galleries Ltd., Galway, GY, Ireland
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Seller Inventory # V9780393541984
Quantity: 15 available
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Kennys Bookstore, Olney, MD, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . . Books ship from the US and Ireland. Seller Inventory # V9780393541984
Quantity: 15 available
Seller Image
Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: New. Seller Inventory # 41730217-n
Quantity: 15 available
Seller Image
Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Seller: GreatBookPrices, Columbia, MD, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: As New. Unread book in perfect condition. Seller Inventory # 41730217
Quantity: 15 available
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty DecisionMa
Seller: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Condition: Good. Item in good condition. Textbooks may not include supplemental items i.e. CDs, access codes etc. Seller Inventory # 00091818911
Quantity: 1 available
Stock Image
Radical Uncertainty DecisionMaking Beyond the Numbers
Seller: Revaluation Books, Exeter, United Kingdom
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: Brand New. reprint edition. 530 pages. 8.50x5.75x1.50 inches. In Stock. Seller Inventory # 0393541983
Quantity: 1 available