Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change

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9780029279526: Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change

The author identifies the most common mistakes in forecasting technological developments and provides guidelines. He considers forecasts preceding vibrant growth in computers and other major products and provides three key guidelines to reliable, lower-risk forecasting.

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Schnaars documents that there is no evidence to support the widely accepted hypothesis of accelerating change. He suggests that forecasters would do well to test their assumptions about the future with hard market questions grounded firmly in the present.

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Steven P. Schnaars
Published by Free Press (1989)
ISBN 10: 0029279526 ISBN 13: 9780029279526
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Published by Free Press (1989)
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