MEGAMISTAKES: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change

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9780029279526: MEGAMISTAKES: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change

The author identifies the most common mistakes in forecasting technological developments and provides guidelines. He considers forecasts preceding vibrant growth in computers and other major products and provides three key guidelines to reliable, lower-risk forecasting.

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From Library Journal:

The downside of megatrends is, of course, megamistakes. The big mistakes are all those wrong predictions regularly issued by think tanks, politicians, and market researchers, and, according to marketing professor Schnaars (Baruch Coll., CUNY), there are many. Here he reviews both good and bad forecasts and finds a 75 percent to 85 percent error rate. Most new consumer products fail, often as the result of mistaken technology forecasts, "viruses that attack (industry's) lifeblood," he contends. Schnaars concludes by recommending solutions for practitioners; in the earlier part of the book, he addresses a general audience. Despite mixed intentions, this is a useful work for both public and business libraries.
- Justine Roberts, Univ. of California at San Francisco Lib.
Copyright 1989 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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