The author identifies the most common mistakes in forecasting technological developments and provides guidelines. He considers forecasts preceding vibrant growth in computers and other major products and provides three key guidelines to reliable, lower-risk forecasting.
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The downside of megatrends is, of course, megamistakes. The big mistakes are all those wrong predictions regularly issued by think tanks, politicians, and market researchers, and, according to marketing professor Schnaars (Baruch Coll., CUNY), there are many. Here he reviews both good and bad forecasts and finds a 75 percent to 85 percent error rate. Most new consumer products fail, often as the result of mistaken technology forecasts, "viruses that attack (industry's) lifeblood," he contends. Schnaars concludes by recommending solutions for practitioners; in the earlier part of the book, he addresses a general audience. Despite mixed intentions, this is a useful work for both public and business libraries.
- Justine Roberts, Univ. of California at San Francisco Lib.
Copyright 1989 Reed Business Information, Inc.
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Book Description Free Press, 1989. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. book. Bookseller Inventory # 0029279526
Book Description Free Press, 1989. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 29th. Bookseller Inventory # DADAX0029279526
Book Description Free Press, 1989. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. Bookseller Inventory # P110029279526
Book Description Free Press. Hardcover. Book Condition: New. 0029279526 New Condition. Bookseller Inventory # NEW6.0007641